The fact that nationwide election results are typically dependent on a small number of swing states means that the officials who oversee the elections and certify the election results in those states have significant influence. Governors and Secretaries of State Play a Central Role in Electoral Processes In the last presidential election, the so-called battleground states included Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and – for the first time in decades – Georgia. The rival presidential candidates tend to identify these states early in their campaigns and direct their funds at them. This setup produces a handful of swing states where a candidate can win the popular vote by a slim margin of just a few thousand votes but still receive all that state’s votes in the Electoral College. However, apart from Nebraska and Maine, all states follow the same winner-take-all principle. The 50 states (plus Washington, DC) have very different numbers of votes. ![]() US presidents are ultimately elected by a minimum of 270 of the available 538 votes in the Electoral College. ![]() On the now fateful date of January 6, the votes from all states (plus Washington, DC) are counted in a joint session of Congress presided over by the sitting vice president who also announces the final election results. The electors from the party with the most popular votes in November meet in their respective state capitals in December to cast their votes for the presidential candidate. Therefore, before presidential elections, every political party assembles electors from each state. This body was established by the Constitution in 1787 when its drafters argued that the plan for Congress to elect the president would break the separation of powers. In contrast to other presidential systems such as those in France, US presidents are not elected directly by the popular vote but indirectly by an Electoral College. The Electoral College System Creates a Handful of Swing States If they win this November, they could cave to political pressure from Trump and other leading Republicans to manipulate elections in 2024. Many of these candidates actively support Trump’s lie of a “stolen” 2020 election. It is not far-fetched to conclude that he wants his pet candidates to either rig the results of the next presidential election in his favor or act on his behalf in a system that, to his mind, is rigged against him. ![]() Because he found Republican officials like Raffensperger unsympathetic in the last presidential elections, Trump is trying to install his allies in key positions in the run-up to those in 2024. The episode illustrates the crucial importance of secretaries of state in conducting elections – importance not lost on Trump. If Trump supporters win this November, they could cave to political pressure from Trump and other leading Republicans to manipulate elections in 2024. Trump needed these votes to tip the results in Georgia, which, by a thin margin, had just voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1992. That case involves a January 2021 phone call during which the still incumbent president told Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to “find” 11,780 votes. Yet one of these investigations is instructive for a different reason: It signals Trump’s readiness to manipulate the 2024 election. ![]() Much attention has been paid to what these mean for Trump’s standing with voters – in terms of both his ability to support Republican candidates in November’s midterm elections, when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested, and his prospects for another presidential run. Donald Trump and his confidants are currently the subject of multiple criminal investigations.
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